вторник, 14 апреля 2009 г.

KIM - dilution effect does not allow BUY recommendation

Among peers (6 REITs with current marketcap >$2bln) KIM is hurted most at 4 out of four intermediate terms for the year passed: 1yr, half, qtr (only VNO performed worse at 1mth period).

All REITs showed increased volume last half year. KIM's volume spiked enormously on 3 April accompanied by price increase by around 30% from $7.49 to $9.4 when company announced 91mln shares issue @$7.1 (meaning selling equity at fire sale price) to reduce debt. Reduction of debt was perceieved as a good, still dilutive shares issuance was negative for old shareholders.

Company looks most undervalued also by basic multiples (P/E, P/S) though I did not find out if finviz uses old or new number of shares.

Company financials (profitability, balance sheet items turnover, debt leverage) look average compared to peers with no deviations.

KIM, VNO and O are reported a zero short interest as of beginning of April.

I would avoid recommending BUY based only on comparative valuation due to uncertainty with share issuance effect. Technical analysis could hardly be applied now untill full understanding of the effect of share issuance (scale of the dilution effect).

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